Release Forecast Calculator
Calculate Release Forecast step by step: Sprints = remaining points ÷ velocity, rounded up, using both a low and a high velocity to give a range.
In short
Formula: Sprints = remaining points ÷ velocity, rounded up, using both a low and a high velocity to give a range.
What this calculator does
Calculate Release Forecast step by step: Sprints = remaining points ÷ velocity, rounded up, using both a low and a high velocity to give a range. Worked example, questions and limitations included.
Use it to turn Remaining backlog, Low velocity (e.g. lowest recent), High velocity (e.g. highest recent), Sprint length into a checked result you can compare, copy, or rerun with different assumptions.
The page shows the formula, a numeric worked example, and the assumptions that affect this agile delivery calculation.
Inputs and what they mean
- Remaining backlog
- — number value.
- Low velocity (e.g. lowest recent)
- — number value.
- High velocity (e.g. highest recent)
- — number value.
- Sprint length
- — number value.
How to use it
- Enter each value in the unit shown next to the box (use the unit converter first if your numbers are in other units).
- Check the breakdown to see every intermediate step.
- Read the limitations before relying on the result.
Formula
Range-based release forecasting from velocity is common Scrum practice (see Mike Cohn, Agile Estimating and Planning).
A range is shown on purpose; a single date implies certainty the data does not have.
Scope added during the release extends the forecast; re-run it each sprint.
Sprints = remaining points ÷ velocity, rounded up, using both a low and a high velocity to give a range.
Inputs used: Remaining backlog, Low velocity (e.g. lowest recent), High velocity (e.g. highest recent), Sprint length.
Worked example
180 points left
- 180 ÷ 25 = 7.2 → 8 sprints.
- 180 ÷ 18 = 10 sprints.
- 16 – 20 weeks.
Reading the result
The headline figure is the main answer. Any breakdown underneath shows the parts that make it up, so you can check the working and see what changes when you adjust an input.
Limitations and assumptions
- Team-specific velocity only.
- No probability levels.
- Assumes stable team and scope.
- Results are planning estimates built only from the figures you enter. They are not a guarantee of cost, schedule or delivery, and they do not replace your organisation's own project controls.
- The result depends on the values you enter for this release forecast calculator; it does not supply missing rates, rules, prices, dates, or assumptions for you.
Common questions
Why a range?
Velocity varies sprint to sprint; a range is more honest than a single date. Check the formula, example, and limitations on this page before using the result for a real agile delivery decision.
What about Monte Carlo?
Monte Carlo simulation on throughput history gives probability-based dates; this tool uses the simpler min/max method. Check the formula, example, and limitations on this page before using the result for a real agile delivery decision.
Does scope growth matter?
Yes. Add expected new points to the remaining backlog.
How do I use the Release Forecast Calculator?
Enter the required values for Remaining backlog, Low velocity (e.g. lowest recent), High velocity (e.g. highest recent), Sprint length. The calculator applies the formula on this page and shows the main result with any supporting breakdown so you can check the arithmetic.
What formula does the Release Forecast Calculator use?
Sprints = remaining points ÷ velocity, rounded up, using both a low and a high velocity to give a range. The visible formula section above lists the calculation path and the edge cases the page handles, so the result can be checked without relying on the form alone.
Can the Release Forecast Calculator be used for exact decisions?
Use it as a calculation aid, not as a substitute for checking the underlying rule, contract, policy, or professional advice that applies to your situation. When a result depends on local rules, personal details, prices, or dates, enter those values yourself and confirm them before acting.
Related tools
Calculate Velocity step by step: Velocity = average of completed (done) story points over recent sprints.
Calculate Agile Team Capacity step by step: Capacity (hours) = (members × sprint days − absence days) × focus hours per day − members × event hours.
Calculate Sprint Capacity step by step: Sprint capacity (points) = average velocity × available person-days ÷ normal person-days.
Calculate Agile Throughput step by step: Throughput = items finished ÷ period length.
Calculate agile cycle time step by step: cycle time = finish date − start date, shown as average, median and 85th percentile.
Calculate Lead Time step by step: Lead time = delivery date − request date (when the customer asked).